PitchIQ

69 - 78

SEA

Seattle Mariners

Scheduled

Sutter Health Park

59 - 88

ATH

Athletics

Pitcher Advantage ? Seattle Mariners +10.0 Confidence: Medium - meaningful profile separation after regression

AI Matchup Summary

Seattle Holds Advantage Behind Bryan Woo

The model favors the Seattle Mariners with a 10.0-point PitchIQ edge over the Athletics, driven primarily by superior command and season performance metrics from Bryan Woo. Gage Jump and the Athletics face an uphill battle given Seattle's distinct advantages in underlying Statcast quality and bullpen rating. Weather and park factors remain completely neutral for this matchup at Sutter Health Park.

Key factors

Bryan Woo holds a clear advantage in command and whiff metrics
Seattle maintains a stronger season performance and bullpen rating profile
Neutral park factors and calm weather conditions expected in West Sacramento

Model checks

Official batting lineups are not available yet; placeholder metrics are currently in use
Gage Jump exhibits a lower quality start probability and shorter expected innings

Weak Strong

Seattle Mariners

Bryan Woo

Real Statcast profile · 2398 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 58.6

Win Probability ? 52.2%

Expected IP ? 5.7

K Projection ? 5.8

Quality Start ? 29%

Model Role ? Away SP

Traditional

ERA ? 2.85

WHIP ? 1.11

FIP ? 3.21

K/9 ? 9.5

BB/9 ? 2.0

HR/9 ? 1.1

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 4.45

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.06

Last 3 K ? 21

Avg IP ? 5.5

Avg Pitch Count ? 92

Velocity Trend ? 1.4

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.292

xBA ? 0.321

xSLG ? 0.527

HardHit% ? 25.2

Barrel% ? 1.4

Avg EV ? 83.6

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 33.0

FB% ? 47.1

LD% ? 19.9

Pull% ? 43.4

Oppo% ? 30.5

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 51.5

Chase% ? 33.8

Whiff% ? 24.7

1stPitchS% ? 68.9

BB% ? 5.2

K% ? 24.9

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam

46.6% | 96.1 mph | 25.4% whiff

Sinker

19.4% | 95.9 mph | 12.2% whiff

Slider

14.7% | 87.1 mph | 32.8% whiff

Sweeper

11.0% | 84.5 mph | 34.7% whiff

Change

6.3% | 89.6 mph | 20.0% whiff

Athletics

Gage Jump

Real Statcast profile · 1718 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 48.6

Win Probability ? 47.8%

Expected IP ? 5.1

K Projection ? 5.5

Quality Start ? 16%

Model Role ? Home SP

Traditional

ERA ? 3.84

WHIP ? 1.43

FIP ? 3.63

K/9 ? 9.5

BB/9 ? 4.0

HR/9 ? 0.9

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 2.07

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.24

Last 3 K ? 18

Avg IP ? 5.0

Avg Pitch Count ? 89

Velocity Trend ? 0.9

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.326

xBA ? 0.364

xSLG ? 0.557

HardHit% ? 22.6

Barrel% ? 1.1

Avg EV ? 82.3

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 32.6

FB% ? 44.6

LD% ? 22.8

Pull% ? 38.4

Oppo% ? 26.8

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 48.4

Chase% ? 30.1

Whiff% ? 25.6

1stPitchS% ? 60.7

BB% ? 10.5

K% ? 24.8

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam

46.4% | 96.3 mph | 23.1% whiff

Slider

22.4% | 87.2 mph | 28.4% whiff

Curve

10.5% | 82.3 mph | 26.4% whiff

Change

9.3% | 87.6 mph | 27.8% whiff

Sweeper

5.8% | 83.8 mph | 36.4% whiff

Environment & Matchup Context

Ballpark Context ? 50.0

Neutral fallback for current Athletics home venue.

Run Factor: 1.0 | HR Factor: 1.0

Weather ? 50.0

67.0°F, 63% humidity, 5.2 mph wind, 1008.1 hPa pressure.

Lineup Matchup ? 47.1 / 56.7

Official lineup not available yet. Using deterministic team matchup placeholder.

PitchIQ Model Breakdown

Red side favors the home pitcher. Blue side favors the away pitcher. Weather and park context are now included. Lineup matchup is scaffolded until confirmed lineup + batter-vs-pitcher data is connected.

Statcast Quality 26% weight ?

SEA

59.0

49.0

SEA +10.0

Command / Whiff 18% weight ?

SEA

64.7

41.3

SEA +23.4

Season Performance 12% weight ?

SEA

77.7

48.4

SEA +29.3

Recent Form 8% weight ?

SEA

59.6

61.8

ATH +2.2

Bullpen Rating 10% weight ?

SEA

50.4

36.9

SEA +13.5

Offense vs Handedness 10% weight ?

SEA

43.6

50.1

ATH +6.5

Confirmed Lineup Strength 8% weight ?

SEA

50.0

Even

Weather Impact 4% weight ?

SEA

50.0

Even

Park Context 4% weight ?

SEA

50.0

Even