Model transparency
PitchIQ model logic
PitchIQ is a pitcher-first matchup model that blends Statcast quality, command and whiff skill, season performance, recent form, bullpen support, team offense context, confirmed lineup availability, weather, and park factors.
Small samples are regressed toward league average, and unknown lineups stay neutral
instead of creating fake confidence.
What's in the model
- Statcast quality: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, HardHit%, Barrel%, and average exit velocity.
- Command / whiff: K%, BB%, whiff rate, chase rate, zone rate, and first-pitch strikes.
- Team context: bullpen support proxy, team offense context, and confirmed lineup availability.
- Run environment: park factors and game-time weather.
Small-sample defense
- Pitchers with limited Statcast samples are regressed toward league average.
- Short expected workloads reduce a starter's ability to create a huge edge.
- Unknown lineups stay neutral instead of being guessed.
- Placeholder data is intentionally low-impact until better public data is available.
Model weights
| Component | Weight | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Statcast Quality | 26% | Expected contact quality allowed and batted-ball damage suppression. |
| Command / Whiff | 18% | Strikeout ability, walk suppression, chase, whiff, and zone control. |
| Season Performance | 12% | Traditional run-prevention context. |
| Recent Form | 8% | Recent workload and trend context without overreacting. |
| Bullpen Rating | 10% | Team pitching support after starter exit; currently a conservative team-pitching proxy. |
| Offense vs Handedness | 10% | Run-support context versus opposing starter hand when available. |
| Confirmed Lineup Strength | 8% | Lineup availability and completeness; unknown pregame lineups stay neutral. |
| Weather Impact | 4% | Temperature, wind, humidity, pressure, and HR-risk conditions. |
| Park Context | 4% | Ballpark run factor and home-run environment. |
Heat color guide
Excellent
Top-tier pitcher outcome.
Top-tier pitcher outcome.
Average
Middle-band result.
Middle-band result.
Poor
Risky pitcher outcome.
Risky pitcher outcome.
Neutral
Missing or unavailable data.
Missing or unavailable data.
What PitchIQ does not claim
- It does not attempt to replicate Vegas odds.
- It does not currently model injuries, umpire assignments, defense, or market movement.
- It does not claim spin efficiency, VAA, Stuff+, or platoon splits unless those values are actually present in the code and UI.