PitchIQ

82 - 65

PHI

Philadelphia Phillies

Scheduled

Truist Park

86 - 61

ATL

Atlanta Braves

Pitcher Advantage ? Philadelphia Phillies +13.7 Confidence: Medium - meaningful profile separation after regression

AI Matchup Summary

Phillies hold a clear pitching advantage behind Luzardo

Jesús Luzardo provides the Philadelphia Phillies with a meaningful edge over Tyler Mahle and the Atlanta Braves. Luzardo's superior command, whiff metrics, and overall season performance drive a 13.7 point PitchIQ advantage in favor of Philadelphia.

Key factors

Jesús Luzardo holds a strong advantage in command and whiff metrics over Tyler Mahle
Philadelphia maintains a solid edge in underlying Statcast quality and season performance
Truist Park presents a generally neutral to slightly hitter-friendly environment

Model checks

Official starting lineups are not yet available, utilizing deterministic team placeholders
High humidity conditions at Truist Park could introduce slight weather-related variances

Weak Strong

Philadelphia Phillies

Jesús Luzardo

Real Statcast profile · 2860 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 65.0

Win Probability ? 51.4%

Expected IP ? 6.3

K Projection ? 7.0

Quality Start ? 38%

Model Role ? Away SP

Traditional

ERA ? 2.4

WHIP ? 1.12

FIP ? 2.57

K/9 ? 11.6

BB/9 ? 2.7

HR/9 ? 0.8

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 5.02

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.67

Last 3 K ? 27

Avg IP ? 6.4

Avg Pitch Count ? 104

Velocity Trend ? 0.3

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.262

xBA ? 0.309

xSLG ? 0.459

HardHit% ? 21.4

Barrel% ? 1.6

Avg EV ? 81.6

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 43.2

FB% ? 38.6

LD% ? 18.2

Pull% ? 36.7

Oppo% ? 26.5

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 46.5

Chase% ? 33.6

Whiff% ? 31.9

1stPitchS% ? 62.6

BB% ? 7.1

K% ? 30.3

Pitch Arsenal

Sweeper

38.2% | 86.1 mph | 47.5% whiff

4-Seam

26.2% | 96.8 mph | 19.3% whiff

Change

18.3% | 86.0 mph | 37.5% whiff

Sinker

17.3% | 95.8 mph | 10.8% whiff

Atlanta Braves

Tyler Mahle

Real Statcast profile · 2118 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 51.3

Win Probability ? 48.6%

Expected IP ? 5.7

K Projection ? 5.5

Quality Start ? 25%

Model Role ? Home SP

Traditional

ERA ? 3.43

WHIP ? 1.29

FIP ? 3.89

K/9 ? 8.7

BB/9 ? 3.0

HR/9 ? 1.2

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 4.66

Last 3 WHIP ? 0.93

Last 3 K ? 16

Avg IP ? 5.6

Avg Pitch Count ? 92

Velocity Trend ? 0.9

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.312

xBA ? 0.336

xSLG ? 0.53

HardHit% ? 23.8

Barrel% ? 1.5

Avg EV ? 82.9

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 36.2

FB% ? 43.9

LD% ? 19.9

Pull% ? 42.5

Oppo% ? 26.6

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 46.6

Chase% ? 28.9

Whiff% ? 23.4

1stPitchS% ? 57.1

BB% ? 7.9

K% ? 22.7

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam

48.4% | 92.8 mph | 22.9% whiff

Splitter

28.5% | 86.2 mph | 26.8% whiff

Cutter

16.0% | 87.8 mph | 15.2% whiff

Slider

6.2% | 84.9 mph | 26.0% whiff

Environment & Matchup Context

Ballpark Context ? 45.1

Generally neutral to slightly hitter-friendly.

Run Factor: 1.01 | HR Factor: 1.04

Weather ? 47.0

73.3°F, 95% humidity, 1.9 mph wind, 977.5 hPa pressure.

Lineup Matchup ? 49.8 / 54.3

Official lineup not available yet. Using deterministic team matchup placeholder.

PitchIQ Model Breakdown

Red side favors the home pitcher. Blue side favors the away pitcher. Weather and park context are now included. Lineup matchup is scaffolded until confirmed lineup + batter-vs-pitcher data is connected.

Statcast Quality 26% weight ?

PHI

67.0

53.1

PHI +13.9

Command / Whiff 18% weight ?

PHI

79.6

42.1

PHI +37.5

Season Performance 12% weight ?

PHI

91.8

55.1

PHI +36.7

Recent Form 8% weight ?

PHI

46.3

55.8

ATL +9.5

Bullpen Rating 10% weight ?

PHI

52.8

53.4

ATL +0.6

Offense vs Handedness 10% weight ?

PHI

48.8

50.0

ATL +1.2

Confirmed Lineup Strength 8% weight ?

PHI

50.0

Even

Weather Impact 4% weight ?

PHI

47.0

Even

Park Context 4% weight ?

PHI

45.1

Even