PitchIQ

66 - 82

KC

Kansas City Royals

Scheduled

Fenway Park

80 - 68

BOS

Boston Red Sox

Pitcher Advantage ? Boston Red Sox +11.4 Confidence: Medium - meaningful profile separation after regression

AI Matchup Summary

Boston Holds Clear Pitching Advantage at Fenway Park

Ranger Suarez and the Boston Red Sox hold an 11.4-point PitchIQ edge over Randy Dobnak and the Kansas City Royals. Boston demonstrates superior marks in overall Statcast quality, command, whiff metrics, and season performance. Official starting lineups are not yet available, so this projection relies on baseline team metrics.

Key factors

Ranger Suarez superior Statcast quality and command metrics
Boston holding a clear advantage in overall season performance
Fenway Park's slightly hitter-friendly run scoring context

Model checks

Official batting lineups are not yet posted
Moderate Statcast sample size for the away pitcher

Weak Strong

Kansas City Royals

Randy Dobnak

Real Statcast profile · 1067 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 41.7

Win Probability ? 43.9%

Expected IP ? 5.5

K Projection ? 4.3

Quality Start ? 17%

Model Role ? Away SP

Traditional

ERA ? 4.1

WHIP ? 1.32

FIP ? 4.06

K/9 ? 6.1

BB/9 ? 3.3

HR/9 ? 0.9

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 4.14

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.66

Last 3 K ? 14

Avg IP ? 5.7

Avg Pitch Count ? 87

Velocity Trend ? 1.0

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.335

xBA ? 0.355

xSLG ? 0.491

HardHit% ? 29.2

Barrel% ? 1.1

Avg EV ? 84.5

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 53.0

FB% ? 28.1

LD% ? 18.9

Pull% ? 36.9

Oppo% ? 27.3

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 43.7

Chase% ? 30.1

Whiff% ? 20.0

1stPitchS% ? 59.8

BB% ? 8.5

K% ? 15.9

Pitch Arsenal

Sinker

39.3% | 91.5 mph | 8.7% whiff

Sweeper

24.9% | 82.4 mph | 32.3% whiff

Change

21.0% | 84.8 mph | 28.5% whiff

4-Seam

9.4% | 92.2 mph | 14.6% whiff

Slider

5.4% | 83.8 mph | 27.3% whiff

Boston Red Sox

Ranger Suarez

Real Statcast profile · 2107 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 53.1

Win Probability ? 56.1%

Expected IP ? 6.0

K Projection ? 5.4

Quality Start ? 28%

Model Role ? Home SP

Traditional

ERA ? 3.02

WHIP ? 1.24

FIP ? 2.94

K/9 ? 8.6

BB/9 ? 2.8

HR/9 ? 0.6

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 6.25

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.44

Last 3 K ? 9

Avg IP ? 6.0

Avg Pitch Count ? 95

Velocity Trend ? 1.5

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.298

xBA ? 0.33

xSLG ? 0.47

HardHit% ? 20.5

Barrel% ? 0.9

Avg EV ? 80.6

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 38.9

FB% ? 39.0

LD% ? 22.1

Pull% ? 41.5

Oppo% ? 24.5

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 44.0

Chase% ? 31.0

Whiff% ? 21.7

1stPitchS% ? 65.5

BB% ? 7.4

K% ? 22.4

Pitch Arsenal

Sinker

23.4% | 90.3 mph | 12.8% whiff

4-Seam

22.8% | 91.5 mph | 15.8% whiff

Cutter

19.3% | 88.0 mph | 14.6% whiff

Curve

16.6% | 75.6 mph | 38.7% whiff

Change

13.1% | 81.1 mph | 26.3% whiff

Environment & Matchup Context

Ballpark Context ? 45.3

Hitter-friendly for run scoring, less extreme for home runs.

Run Factor: 1.05 | HR Factor: 0.98

Weather ? 51.0

61.3°F, 55% humidity, 4.4 mph wind, 1016.0 hPa pressure.

Lineup Matchup ? 55.3 / 46.8

Official lineup not available yet. Using deterministic team matchup placeholder.

PitchIQ Model Breakdown

Red side favors the home pitcher. Blue side favors the away pitcher. Weather and park context are now included. Lineup matchup is scaffolded until confirmed lineup + batter-vs-pitcher data is connected.

Statcast Quality 26% weight ?

46.3

59.0

BOS +12.7

Command / Whiff 18% weight ?

25.1

44.0

BOS +18.9

Season Performance 12% weight ?

36.6

69.2

BOS +32.6

Recent Form 8% weight ?

36.5

27.6

KC +8.9

Bullpen Rating 10% weight ?

42.4

54.5

BOS +12.1

Offense vs Handedness 10% weight ?

49.6

51.0

BOS +1.4

Confirmed Lineup Strength 8% weight ?

50.0

Even

Weather Impact 4% weight ?

51.0

Even

Park Context 4% weight ?

45.3

Even