PitchIQ

74 - 74

PIT

Pittsburgh Pirates

Scheduled

Wrigley Field

82 - 66

CHC

Chicago Cubs

Pitcher Advantage ? Pittsburgh Pirates +9.8 Confidence: Medium - model includes pitcher profile, bullpen support, offense context, weather, park, and lineup availability

AI Matchup Summary

Skenes and Pirates Hold Clear Edge Over Cubs

The Pittsburgh Pirates hold a distinct 9.8-point advantage in this matchup, driven largely by Paul Skenes' superior command, whiff metrics, and season performance metrics over Clay Holmes. While both starters are projected for similar lengths around five innings, the model leans toward Pittsburgh based on underlying Statcast quality and bullpen support.

Key factors

Paul Skenes holds a significant advantage in command and whiff metrics.
Pittsburgh maintains stronger overall season performance ratings.
Wrigley Field presents standard park and weather factors with open-roof conditions.

Model checks

Official starting lineups are not yet available, using team-level placeholders.
Weather-sensitive park at Wrigley Field; wind conditions can shift run environments.

Weak Strong

Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes

Real Statcast profile · 2623 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 58.9

Win Probability ? 50.0%

Expected IP ? 5.3

K Projection ? 6.0

Quality Start ? 23%

Model Role ? Away SP

Traditional

ERA ? 2.5

WHIP ? 1.18

FIP ? 2.89

K/9 ? 10.8

BB/9 ? 2.7

HR/9 ? 0.9

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 4.98

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.14

Last 3 K ? 10

Avg IP ? 5.3

Avg Pitch Count ? 90

Velocity Trend ? -0.9

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.28

xBA ? 0.317

xSLG ? 0.501

HardHit% ? 21.0

Barrel% ? 1.4

Avg EV ? 81.5

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 31.8

FB% ? 49.0

LD% ? 19.2

Pull% ? 41.2

Oppo% ? 27.8

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 46.5

Chase% ? 32.3

Whiff% ? 27.9

1stPitchS% ? 60.4

BB% ? 7.0

K% ? 28.2

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam

40.8% | 96.9 mph | 29.8% whiff

Sweeper

15.7% | 84.3 mph | 27.6% whiff

Change

12.8% | 88.7 mph | 36.7% whiff

Sinker

11.9% | 96.7 mph | 13.1% whiff

Splitter

10.8% | 93.2 mph | 18.2% whiff

Chicago Cubs

Clay Holmes

Real Statcast profile · 1338 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 49.1

Win Probability ? 50.0%

Expected IP ? 5.5

K Projection ? 4.5

Quality Start ? 20%

Model Role ? Home SP

Traditional

ERA ? 3.4

WHIP ? 1.17

FIP ? 3.4

K/9 ? 7.1

BB/9 ? 3.3

HR/9 ? 0.5

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 6.13

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.3

Last 3 K ? 15

Avg IP ? 5.6

Avg Pitch Count ? 91

Velocity Trend ? -0.3

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.311

xBA ? 0.324

xSLG ? 0.466

HardHit% ? 29.2

Barrel% ? 0.9

Avg EV ? 83.6

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 57.1

FB% ? 25.8

LD% ? 17.1

Pull% ? 35.2

Oppo% ? 23.7

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 46.0

Chase% ? 32.7

Whiff% ? 21.0

1stPitchS% ? 57.6

BB% ? 8.6

K% ? 18.6

Pitch Arsenal

Sinker

49.9% | 93.1 mph | 11.7% whiff

Sweeper

17.5% | 81.5 mph | 28.1% whiff

Change

14.3% | 88.1 mph | 30.7% whiff

Cutter

10.4% | 86.3 mph | 39.1% whiff

Curve

7.0% | 81.2 mph | 25.0% whiff

Environment & Matchup Context

Ballpark Context ? 43.8

Weather-sensitive park; wind can swing the run environment significantly.

Run Factor: 1.02 | HR Factor: 1.04

Weather ? 46.0

68.1°F, 80% humidity, 7.6 mph wind, 988.5 hPa pressure.

Lineup Matchup ? 55.6 / 47.9

Official lineup not available yet. Using deterministic team matchup placeholder.

PitchIQ Model Breakdown

Red side favors the home pitcher. Blue side favors the away pitcher. Weather and park context are now included. Lineup matchup is scaffolded until confirmed lineup + batter-vs-pitcher data is connected.

Statcast Quality 26% weight ?

PIT

62.5

55.6

PIT +6.9

Command / Whiff 18% weight ?

PIT

68.0

33.1

PIT +34.9

Season Performance 12% weight ?

PIT

85.1

59.8

PIT +25.3

Recent Form 8% weight ?

PIT

33.9

30.8

PIT +3.1

Bullpen Rating 10% weight ?

PIT

50.5

46.9

PIT +3.6

Offense vs Handedness 10% weight ?

PIT

53.0

59.2

CHC +6.2

Confirmed Lineup Strength 8% weight ?

PIT

50.0

Even

Weather Impact 4% weight ?

PIT

46.0

Even

Park Context 4% weight ?

PIT

43.8

Even