⚾ PitchIQ

MLB Pitching Matchup Intelligence

LAD 90 - 57

LAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

Scheduled
@
loanDepot park
MIA 72 - 76

MIA

Miami Marlins

Pitcher Advantage ? Los Angeles Dodgers +15.6 Confidence: Medium - meaningful profile separation after regression
AI Matchup Summary

Tyler Glasnow and Dodgers hold clear edge over Marlins

The Los Angeles Dodgers hold a decisive pitching advantage in this matchup, driven by superior Statcast quality and a strong command and whiff profile from Tyler Glasnow. Tyler Phillips and the Miami Marlins face an uphill battle with a lower expected output and limited quality start projection. The pitcher-friendly environment at loanDepot park further influences the baseline conditions.

Key factors
  • Significant advantage for Tyler Glasnow in command and whiff metrics
  • Substantial gap in season performance metrics favoring the Dodgers
  • Pitcher-friendly park context at loanDepot park
Model checks
  • Short expected innings projection of 4.4 IP for Tyler Phillips
  • Retractable roof status introduces minor weather and environmental uncertainty
  • Official batting lineups are not yet available
Weak Strong
Tyler Glasnow

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tyler Glasnow

Real Statcast profile · 875 pitches sampled
PitchIQ ? 63.7
Win Probability ? 54.7%
Expected IP ? 5.7
K Projection ? 6.7
Quality Start ? 31%
Model Role ? Away SP

Traditional

ERA ? 2.4
WHIP ? 0.99
FIP ? 2.63
K/9 ? 12.2
BB/9 ? 3.0
HR/9 ? 0.9

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 2.1
Last 3 WHIP ? 1.45
Last 3 K ? 21
Avg IP ? 5.6
Avg Pitch Count ? 90
Velocity Trend ? 1.2

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.253
xBA ? 0.295
xSLG ? 0.499
HardHit% ? 25.1
Barrel% ? 1.3
Avg EV ? 84.7

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 38.1
FB% ? 43.1
LD% ? 18.8
Pull% ? 41.0
Oppo% ? 26.8

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 46.3
Chase% ? 28.9
Whiff% ? 29.8
1stPitchS% ? 60.3
BB% ? 7.8
K% ? 32.0

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam
32.9% | 95.4 mph | 14.2% whiff
Sinker
22.2% | 95.8 mph | 24.0% whiff
Curve
20.5% | 80.5 mph | 48.5% whiff
Slider
17.6% | 89.7 mph | 37.8% whiff
Curve
6.2% | 83.9 mph | 61.9% whiff
Tyler Phillips

Miami Marlins

Tyler Phillips

Real Statcast profile · 1846 pitches sampled
PitchIQ ? 48.1
Win Probability ? 45.3%
Expected IP ? 4.4
K Projection ? 3.9
Quality Start ? 7%
Model Role ? Home SP

Traditional

ERA ? 3.93
WHIP ? 1.32
FIP ? 4.42
K/9 ? 7.2
BB/9 ? 3.7
HR/9 ? 1.2

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 2.29
Last 3 WHIP ? 1.43
Last 3 K ? 14
Avg IP ? 4.5
Avg Pitch Count ? 76
Velocity Trend ? 1.4

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.329
xBA ? 0.325
xSLG ? 0.524
HardHit% ? 30.6
Barrel% ? 1.9
Avg EV ? 83.6

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 47.9
FB% ? 33.3
LD% ? 18.8
Pull% ? 44.9
Oppo% ? 24.2

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 46.9
Chase% ? 32.2
Whiff% ? 26.0
1stPitchS% ? 61.1
BB% ? 9.7
K% ? 18.9

Pitch Arsenal

Sinker
25.8% | 95.5 mph | 6.2% whiff
Sweeper
24.4% | 84.2 mph | 33.0% whiff
Splitter
23.7% | 87.0 mph | 34.6% whiff
Curve
16.8% | 83.5 mph | 40.7% whiff
4-Seam
7.8% | 96.1 mph | 11.3% whiff

Environment & Matchup Context

Ballpark Context ? 69.9

Pitcher-friendly retractable-roof park.

Run Factor: 0.93 | HR Factor: 0.88

Weather ? 49.0

79.8°F, 87% humidity, 3.6 mph wind, 1015.6 hPa pressure. Retractable roof; actual roof status is not modeled yet.

Lineup Matchup ? 55.2 / 52.0

Official lineup not available yet. Using deterministic team matchup placeholder.

PitchIQ Model Breakdown

Red side favors the home pitcher. Blue side favors the away pitcher. Weather and park context are now included. Lineup matchup is scaffolded until confirmed lineup + batter-vs-pitcher data is connected.

Statcast Quality 26% weight ?
LAD
64.0
48.1
LAD +15.9
Command / Whiff 18% weight ?
LAD
70.5
36.2
LAD +34.3
Season Performance 12% weight ?
LAD
99.1
39.2
LAD +59.9
Recent Form 8% weight ?
LAD
63.1
49.1
LAD +14.0
Bullpen Rating 10% weight ?
LAD
55.9
49.7
LAD +6.2
Offense vs Handedness 10% weight ?
LAD
57.0
51.4
LAD +5.6
Confirmed Lineup Strength 8% weight ?
LAD
50.0
50.0
Even
Weather Impact 4% weight ?
LAD
49.0
49.0
Even
Park Context 4% weight ?
LAD
69.9
69.9
Even