PitchIQ

68 - 79

NYM

New York Mets

Scheduled

Yankee Stadium

85 - 62

NYY

New York Yankees

Pitcher Advantage ? New York Yankees +12.5 Confidence: Medium - meaningful profile separation after regression

AI Matchup Summary

Yankees Hold Clear Pitching Advantage with Gerrit Cole

The New York Yankees hold a notable pitching advantage in this Subway Series matchup at Yankee Stadium. Gerrit Cole brings a significantly stronger Statcast profile, higher strikeout projections, and superior season performance compared to Zac Thornton. The model favors the Yankees by 12.5 PitchIQ points.

Key factors

Gerrit Cole's dominant Statcast quality and higher whiff metrics
Substantial edge for the Yankees in recent form and season performance
Yankee Stadium's short right field creating potential home run factors

Model checks

Official batting lineups are not yet available for final evaluation
Yankee Stadium carries a high home run factor uncertainty for fly-ball pitchers

Weak Strong

New York Mets

Zac Thornton

Real Statcast profile · 1007 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 45.4

Win Probability ? 43.3%

Expected IP ? 5.1

K Projection ? 4.3

Quality Start ? 12%

Model Role ? Away SP

Traditional

ERA ? 3.98

WHIP ? 1.26

FIP ? 4.47

K/9 ? 7.3

BB/9 ? 2.1

HR/9 ? 1.6

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 6.17

Last 3 WHIP ? 1.28

Last 3 K ? 15

Avg IP ? 5.3

Avg Pitch Count ? 89

Velocity Trend ? 0.9

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.331

xBA ? 0.337

xSLG ? 0.568

HardHit% ? 25.4

Barrel% ? 2.5

Avg EV ? 82.2

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 36.7

FB% ? 42.1

LD% ? 21.2

Pull% ? 44.0

Oppo% ? 22.5

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 50.2

Chase% ? 31.5

Whiff% ? 18.9

1stPitchS% ? 63.4

BB% ? 5.6

K% ? 19.1

Pitch Arsenal

Cutter

30.5% | 88.3 mph | 16.8% whiff

4-Seam

24.9% | 92.1 mph | 18.0% whiff

Sweeper

16.7% | 79.9 mph | 25.3% whiff

Sinker

9.5% | 92.3 mph | 19.5% whiff

Slider

9.5% | 84.7 mph | 20.4% whiff

New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole

Real Statcast profile · 1681 pitches sampled

PitchIQ ? 57.9

Win Probability ? 56.7%

Expected IP ? 6.0

K Projection ? 5.9

Quality Start ? 30%

Model Role ? Home SP

Traditional

ERA ? 2.97

WHIP ? 1.14

FIP ? 3.67

K/9 ? 9.5

BB/9 ? 1.9

HR/9 ? 1.4

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 3.27

Last 3 WHIP ? 0.98

Last 3 K ? 13

Avg IP ? 6.0

Avg Pitch Count ? 84

Velocity Trend ? 0.5

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.296

xBA ? 0.335

xSLG ? 0.535

HardHit% ? 26.1

Barrel% ? 0.8

Avg EV ? 84.5

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 27.9

FB% ? 50.5

LD% ? 21.5

Pull% ? 37.7

Oppo% ? 30.5

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 52.6

Chase% ? 29.5

Whiff% ? 22.5

1stPitchS% ? 68.9

BB% ? 4.9

K% ? 24.9

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam

48.4% | 96.9 mph | 22.0% whiff

Slider

19.2% | 89.6 mph | 28.7% whiff

Curve

13.6% | 83.3 mph | 20.0% whiff

Change

13.3% | 86.1 mph | 23.4% whiff

Sinker

3.4% | 96.1 mph | 8.0% whiff

Environment & Matchup Context

Ballpark Context ? 34.4

Short right field can boost left-handed power.

Run Factor: 1.03 | HR Factor: 1.13

Weather ? 51.0

67.6°F, 57% humidity, 3.4 mph wind, 1016.6 hPa pressure.

Lineup Matchup ? 49.6 / 49.1

Official lineup not available yet. Using deterministic team matchup placeholder.

PitchIQ Model Breakdown

Red side favors the home pitcher. Blue side favors the away pitcher. Weather and park context are now included. Lineup matchup is scaffolded until confirmed lineup + batter-vs-pitcher data is connected.

Statcast Quality 26% weight ?

NYM

47.5

57.8

NYY +10.3

Command / Whiff 18% weight ?

NYM

40.9

55.3

NYY +14.4

Season Performance 12% weight ?

NYM

41.3

71.4

NYY +30.1

Recent Form 8% weight ?

NYM

33.1

61.3

NYY +28.2

Bullpen Rating 10% weight ?

NYM

49.2

58.6

NYY +9.4

Offense vs Handedness 10% weight ?

NYM

47.0

50.3

NYY +3.3

Confirmed Lineup Strength 8% weight ?

NYM

50.0

Even

Weather Impact 4% weight ?

NYM

51.0

Even

Park Context 4% weight ?

NYM

34.4

Even