⚾ PitchIQ

MLB Pitching Matchup Intelligence

CWS 75 - 71

CWS

Chicago White Sox

Scheduled
@
Busch Stadium
STL 72 - 75

STL

St. Louis Cardinals

Pitcher Advantage ? St. Louis Cardinals +1.8 Confidence: Low - matchup grades are very close
AI Matchup Summary

Even Pitching Matchup at Busch Stadium

The deterministic model indicates a very tight matchup between Luis Castillo and Kyle Leahy, with St. Louis holding a razor-thin edge of 1.8 points. Both pitchers project for limited expected innings, suggesting heavy reliance on the bullpens as the game progresses. Overall pitching metrics for both sides are closely aligned, resulting in no clear advantage.

Key factors
  • Statcast quality metrics are virtually tied at 45.1 for Chicago and 45.7 for St. Louis.
  • St. Louis holds an advantage in season performance, while Chicago shows stronger recent form.
  • Busch Stadium provides a slightly pitcher-friendly environment to dampen run scoring.
Model checks
  • Short expected IP for both starting pitchers indicates heavy reliever and bulk pitcher usage.
  • Low confidence matchup grade due to very close overall scores between both pitchers.
Weak Strong
Luis Castillo

Chicago White Sox

Luis Castillo

Real Statcast profile · 2279 pitches sampled
PitchIQ ? 46.5
Win Probability ? 48.5%
Expected IP ? 4.6
K Projection ? 3.8
Quality Start ? 6%
Model Role ? Away SP

Traditional

ERA ? 4.22
WHIP ? 1.38
FIP ? 4.7
K/9 ? 7.3
BB/9 ? 2.7
HR/9 ? 1.6

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 2.08
Last 3 WHIP ? 0.9
Last 3 K ? 7
Avg IP ? 4.6
Avg Pitch Count ? 79
Velocity Trend ? -1.1

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.339
xBA ? 0.343
xSLG ? 0.579
HardHit% ? 25.3
Barrel% ? 1.7
Avg EV ? 83.7

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 32.2
FB% ? 48.1
LD% ? 19.7
Pull% ? 36.6
Oppo% ? 24.0

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 48.7
Chase% ? 31.7
Whiff% ? 24.1
1stPitchS% ? 68.5
BB% ? 7.0
K% ? 19.2

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam
41.6% | 95.3 mph | 26.6% whiff
Slider
24.7% | 85.6 mph | 27.1% whiff
Sinker
18.6% | 95.4 mph | 11.2% whiff
Change
14.7% | 87.4 mph | 25.7% whiff
Kyle Leahy

St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle Leahy

Real Statcast profile · 2192 pitches sampled
PitchIQ ? 48.3
Win Probability ? 51.5%
Expected IP ? 3.2
K Projection ? 2.9
Quality Start ? 4%
Model Role ? Home SP

Traditional

ERA ? 4.16
WHIP ? 1.33
FIP ? 3.46
K/9 ? 8.5
BB/9 ? 2.6
HR/9 ? 1.0

Recent Form

Last 3 ERA ? 6.24
Last 3 WHIP ? 0.86
Last 3 K ? 13
Avg IP ? 3.4
Avg Pitch Count ? 56
Velocity Trend ? 0.4

Statcast Quality

xwOBA ? 0.337
xBA ? 0.357
xSLG ? 0.591
HardHit% ? 29.4
Barrel% ? 1.2
Avg EV ? 84.1

Batted Ball Profile

GB% ? 40.1
FB% ? 39.4
LD% ? 20.4
Pull% ? 38.3
Oppo% ? 24.3

Plate Discipline

Zone% ? 49.0
Chase% ? 26.7
Whiff% ? 22.7
1stPitchS% ? 61.5
BB% ? 6.8
K% ? 22.1

Pitch Arsenal

4-Seam
26.1% | 94.2 mph | 16.7% whiff
Curve
16.5% | 83.0 mph | 26.9% whiff
Slider
16.4% | 89.3 mph | 23.2% whiff
Change
14.5% | 88.6 mph | 32.3% whiff
Sweeper
13.5% | 84.8 mph | 25.8% whiff

Environment & Matchup Context

Ballpark Context ? 60.2

Slightly pitcher-friendly park.

Run Factor: 0.97 | HR Factor: 0.93

Weather ? 44.0

73.7°F, 93% humidity, 2.2 mph wind, 993.2 hPa pressure.

Lineup Matchup ? 42.3 / 42.5

Official lineup not available yet. Using deterministic team matchup placeholder.

PitchIQ Model Breakdown

Red side favors the home pitcher. Blue side favors the away pitcher. Weather and park context are now included. Lineup matchup is scaffolded until confirmed lineup + batter-vs-pitcher data is connected.

Statcast Quality 26% weight ?
CWS
45.1
45.7
STL +0.6
Command / Whiff 18% weight ?
CWS
43.6
41.0
CWS +2.6
Season Performance 12% weight ?
CWS
31.3
47.5
STL +16.2
Recent Form 8% weight ?
CWS
53.6
36.5
CWS +17.1
Bullpen Rating 10% weight ?
CWS
48.5
47.2
CWS +1.3
Offense vs Handedness 10% weight ?
CWS
50.6
48.0
CWS +2.6
Confirmed Lineup Strength 8% weight ?
CWS
50.0
50.0
Even
Weather Impact 4% weight ?
CWS
44.0
47.0
STL +3.0
Park Context 4% weight ?
CWS
60.2
60.2
Even